Part I

Data Sources

• BCG Report 2021
  • Table (Page 6): Provides market values for multiple use-cases predicted for 2040.
  • Market Size Calculation (Page 12): States that market size is 20% of market value.
• BCG Article 2024
  • Confirms that the market values have remained unchanged since 2021.

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Market Size Calculation Methodology

To determine the market sizes for specific use-cases, the following formula was applied:

Market Size = 20% x Market Value

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Market Sizes for Selected Use-Cases

{{market-sizes-for-selected-use-cases="/rich-text-content/tables/market-size-for-quantum-computing-use-cases"}}

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Part II

Here, we determine the market sizes for use-cases not mentioned on the BCG report.

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Market Size Calculation Methodology

We will use the following formula [1]:

Market size in year B = Market size in year A x (1+CAGR)^B-A

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Vaccine Design

—> Market Size (2040): $100M - $200M

Estimation Methodology:

1. Determine CAGR for Drug Discovery:

• CAGR for 2022 ($21B) - 2032 ($69.72B): 12.8%
• Assumption: Continues to grow with 12.8% CAGR until 2040
• Hence, CAGR for 2022-2040: 12.8%

2. Calculate Drug Discovery Market Size in 2040 using formula [1]:

Market size in 2040 = 21B × ((1 + 0.128)^(2040-2022)) = 183B

3. Estimate Vaccine Discovery Market Size (2022):

• Assume Drug Discovery Market Size / Drug Market Size = Vaccine Discovery Market Size / Vaccine Market Size
• Drug Market size (2022): 1.48T
• Drug Discovery Market Size (2022): 21B
• 1.48T/21B = 70.5
• Vaccine Market Size (2024): 74B
• Vaccine Discovery Market Size (2022): 1.04B

4. Assume Vaccine Discovery Market grows at same CAGR as Vaccine Market, i.e. 4%
5. Calculate Vaccine Discovery Market Size (2040) using formula [1]:

Market size in 2040 = 1.04B × (1 + 0.04)^18 = 2.1B

6. Determine Quantum Vaccine Discovery Share:

• Assume Quantum Drug Discovery Market Size/Drug Discovery Market Size = Quantum Vaccine Discovery Market Size/Vaccine Discovery Market Size.
• Hence,
• Quantum Market Share Lower Bound = 8B/183B = 4.4% of total market size
• Quantum Market Share Upper Bound = 16B/183B = 8.7% of total market size
• Vaccine Discovery Market size in 2040:
• Lower Bound = 4.4% x 2.1B = 100M
• Upper Bound = 8.7% x 2.1B = 200M

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Energy Grid Optimization

—> Market Size (2040): $8.2B

Estimation Methodology:

1. Market Size (2024): [$3,82B](https://www.marketresearchfuture.com/reports/grid-optimization-solution-market-10616#:~:text=Grid Optimization Solution Market Size was valued at USD 3.44,period (2024 - 2032).)
2. CAGR: 9.55%
3. Market Size (2040) using formula [1]: 3.82B × (1 + 0.0955)^16 = 16.4B
4. Assume Quantum can win 50% of the energy grid optimisation market.
5. Quantum Market Size (2040) = 50% x $16.4B = $8.2B

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Fuel Cell Optimization

—> Market Size (2040): $1.7B

Estimation Methodology:

1. Using Battery Design Software as an analogy, assume that:

(Battery Design Software Market Size / Battery Market Size) = (Fuel Cell Optimization Market Size / Fuel Cell Market Size)

1.3B / 146B = Fuel Cell Optimization Market Size / 9.34B implies 0.083B (2024)

2. Apply CAGR of 26% and use formula [1]:

Market Size (2040) = 0.083B × (1 + 0.26)^16 = 3.3B

3. Assume quantum can win 50% of the fuel cell optimisation market.
4. Quantum Market size (2040) = 50% x $3.3B = $1.7B

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Disease Detection

—> Market Size (2040): $34-67B

Estimation Methodology:

1. Diagnostic testing Market Size (2023): $211B
2. CAGR (2023-2033): 7.9%. Assume it continues to grow with the same CAGR until 2040.
3. Diagnostic Market Size (2040) using formula [1]: $211B × ((1 + 0.079)^17) = 768B
4. Using the same ratio for Quantum Market Share as for Drug Discovery, calculated above (4.4%-8.7%), we find Quantum Diagnostic Market Size (2040): $34-67B

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Genomics

—> Market Size (2040): $80B-157B

Estimation Methodology:

1. DNA Data Storage Market Size (2024): $76M
2. CAGR (2024-2030): 87.7%. Assume it continues to grow with the same CAGR until 2040.
3. DNA Data Storage Market Size (2040) using formula [1]: $76M × ((1 + 0.877)^16) = 1.8T
4. Using the same ratio for Quantum Market Share as for Drug Discovery, calculated above (4.4%-8.7%), we find Quantum DNA Data Storage Market Size (2040): $80B-157B

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Fusion Power Plant

—> Market Size (2040): $800M-1.6B

Estimation Methodology:

1. Fusion Reactor Market Size (2024): $7B
2. Assume CAGR: 10%
3. Fusion Reactor Market Size (2040) using formula [1]: $32B
4. Using the same ratio for Quantum Market Share as for Drug Discovery, calculated above (4.4%-8.7%), we find Quantum Fusion Reactor Market Size (2040): $800M - $1.6B

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Part III

Here, we provide market size estimates for use cases not mentioned in the BCG report but that do not require computations similar to those in Part II. This is because various resources already provide market estimations, making it almost straightforward to deduce the quantum market size for specific use cases.

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Telecommunications

—> Market Size (2040): $300M-2.1B

Estimation Methodology:

1. Take Quantum Communications Market Size according to McKinsey report: $1-7B
2. Telecommunications Market Size is around ⅓ of Communications Market Size.
3. Apply this assumption to Quantum Telecommunications Market Size:

Quantum Telecommunications Market Size = ⅓ x $1-7B = $300M-2.1B.

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Superconductor discovery

—> Market Size (2040): $4.5B

Estimation Methodology:

1. Quantum solutions to Fermi-Hubbard model (used for superconductor discovery) could generate $22.1B in value.
2. Using the formula from Part I, deduce that Quantum Market Size = 20% x $22.1B = $4.5B.